With just six games remaining of the incredibly tight and entertaining 2015 season, the fight for the gold finally appears to have been narrowed down to three teams, although all of the top six teams could´ve very well been up there fighting judging by their very even shot numbers. The difference between Djurgården in sixth place and IFK Göteborg at the top of the table is solely down to a difference in PDO, as their shot ratios are more or less identical. The shot numbers do a great job of explaining just how tight and exciting this years version of Allsvenskan has been, with the almighty Champions League-participant Malmö FF looking likely to miss out on the top 3 and a qualifying spot for the Europa League next season.
As the table below shows, current leaders IFK Göteborg are very defensively solid, having conceded only 90 shots on target all season. As far as creating shots on target on their own, IFK Göteborg are actually the worst out of the top six teams by some margin. Malmö FF of the other hand, are best in the league when it comes to creating shots on target, and have only conceded less shots on target than the above mentioned IFK Göteborg and Djurgårdens IF, leading to the leagues best Shots on Target Ratio. Malmö can definitely count themselves a bit unfortunate to not be in the running for the gold medals this year.
It took them long enough, but Örebro has finally picked up some pace and left the relegation spots. Their PDO is still the lowest in the league, but things are certainly looking up for them and as I´ve been maintaining all season, they don´t look like one of the worst teams in the league as far as shot numbers goes. Defensively yes, they are quite bad having conceded the second most shots on target in the league, but offensively they are quite strong, as the fact that they have actually created more shots on target than leaders IFK Göteborg up to this point shows.
Gefle are an intruiging side. For the second year running their shot numbers are among the worst in the league, yet their results this season tell a different story, with Gefle parked in seventh place right now, thanks to a PDO of 103. They were close to relegation last year, and I haven´t seen enough yet to be convinced that this seasons results isn´t just down to some positive variation, but it´ll be interesting to see whether they keep outperforming their shot ratios in the future.
As the two direct relegation spots look destined to belong to Halmstad and Åtvidaberg, the race is very much on to avoid the 14th place and a knock out tie to stay in the league. GIF Sundsvall, Hammarby, Kalmar, Örebro and Falkenberg are all very much in danger of ending up in 14th, with Falkenberg occupying that spot for the time being. Falkenberg do look like the weakest out of these teams, with Hammarby looking no way near as bad. ”Bajen” actually look like a solid top half side that have been let down by some poor finishing.
The table showing points added over expected points gives IFK Norrköping coach Janne Andersson a lot of credit, as his side has managed to earn almost 12 points more than the bookmakers have expected them to. IFK Göteborg, AIK and Gefle have surprised the bookies in a positive manner as well, with all of AIK:s ”overperformance” coming at home. At the other end, Åtvidaberg, Hammarby and Halmstad have been the biggest letdowns of the season. As mentioned above, Hammarby seems to have been a bit unlucky, whereas Halmstad and Åtvidaberg are simply quite bad, and have been pretty much from tday 1 of the season.